Desperate Times

I'm trying hard not to think too deeply about our chances of staying up. I'm coming to terms with the reality that we're very likely to be going down. If it wasn't us in this position I'd probably have written the occupants off a couple of weeks ago. However, I couldn't resist checking the remaining games of our nearest rivals to see if we could get away with an unlikely recovery.

FFC .... 24pnts - Sun (H), Rea (A), Liv (H), ManC (A), Bir (H), Por (A)
Bolton . 26pnts - AV (A), WHU (H), Mid (A), Tot (A), Sun (H), Che (A)
Birm' ... 30pnts - Wig (A), Eve (H), AV (A), Liv (H), FFC (A), Bla (H)
Wigan . 31pnts - Bir (H), Che (A), Tot (H), Rea (H), AV (A), ManU (H)
Read'g . 32pnts - New (A), FFC (H), Ars (A), Wig (A), Tot (H), Der (A)
Sund' ... 33pnts - FFC (A), ManC (H), New (A), Mid (H), Bol (A), Ars (H)

I tried to work out realistically how many points I thought each team might achieve. It didn't make me feel any better about our situation. We really do need a miracle. Of course the longer we stay in contention and the more wins we collect the better our chances but right now it's hard to see us gaining more than 10 points and even that won't be enough. We really do have to win the next two games or it's curtains.

Ah well, not much point in worrying about things we can't control. I'm still looking forward to our remaining three home games. There's been a great atmosphere at the last couple and if the team responds, as it did against Everton, we could be in for an exciting climax.

No need to get downhearted

Saturday's loss was made all the harder to take by the results elsewhere. On Friday I was postulating about the assistance we might gain from Derby County. They did manage a draw with Sunderland which at least kept the Mackem's a little closer, but it was victories from Reading and Birmingham that really drove the knife in. Reading's injury time winner (a game that featured Liam Rosenior in the starting line up) away at Middlesbrough gave them their first points of the year and ended an eight game losing streak. It was also their first away win of the season a feat we'll have to match pretty soon if we're going to pull our selves out of the fire. More shocking was Birmingham City's 4-1 win over a Spurs side that might have been suffering an extended hangover from their Carling Cup win celebrations. Likewise Middlesbrough had played 120 minutes against Sheffield United in the F.A. Cup on Wednesday night. It seems we're just not getting those sort of breaks this season, though arguably it might just be we're not taking the ones we do get.

All this means we're six points adrift of Reading in 18th place and you could hardly blame those clubs above us from writing us off along with Derby. We really do need to put in a good run of results very soon. The countdown to survival is pretty clear. With ten games to play we need around 21 points to stay up. An average of 2.1 points a game is not impossible but when you consider we've averaged 0.68 a game so far the brutal truth starts to hit home. Realistically we're relying on other teams slipping up. Thankfully Bolton lost on Sunday to leave them only above Reading by goal difference, and Newcastle seem to be doing all they can to make life difficult for themselves.

Countdown to Survival - 1-0 Loss to West Ham

A massive body blow today. It's hard to put a brave face on things. We played well at times but never really threatened enough. Howard Webb had more than a little impact on the game, and the way the goal went in it was hard to not fell a little hard done by. That my man of the match, Leon Andreasen, was sent off as well only made the pain all the worse. A full report tomorrow (if I can face writing it).

Games to play 11

Points required 21

Need to win 7

Countdown to Survival

Games to play 12

Points required 21

Need to win 7

Where did the week go?

Yikes! It's almost a week since my last post. I suspect my days of posting daily are over. I seem to be busier at both work and home without actually getting much more achieved. I had planned to post some longer articles less often but the problem with that is by the time you get round to doing it everything has moved on and your post doesn't seem relevant anymore.

We lost to Middlesbrough, but they are in a good run of form at the moment. They're almost certainly better now than they were when we lost at home back in August. We need to pick up points on our travels but I think it's our home results that will decide whether we stay up or not. We've got no game this weekend thanks to our exit from the F.A. Cup. I tend to believe that a week off is not a good thing. I think we need to keep playing games to get into a groove. Nothing we can do about it. We have to hope Roy can ensure the team is ready for the challenge of West Ham, a game we really need to get some points from.

There's another good article on CCN today trying to work out the likely points totals of the teams at the lower end of the table. It's impossible to do this sort of thing objectively but I do think there are some simple targets we need to aim for. 40 points should be enough to stay up. We're currently on 19 so in the remaining 12 matches we need to pick up 21 points. That's 7 wins. These are our remaining fixtures;

Fulham v West Ham
Fulham v Man Utd
Blackburn v Fulham
Fulham v Everton
Newcastle v Fulham
Derby v Fulham
Fulham v Sunderland
Reading v Fulham
Fulham v Liverpool
Man City v Fulham
Fulham v Birmingham
Portsmouth v Fulham

I'm superstitious so I'm not going to make any predictions but I think there ARE seven games we can win. It won't go to plan of course, we'll probably beat Man Utd and lose to Derby, but there's hope in there. The countdown begins on Saturday week, it's gonna be a rollercoaster from here on in.